“The simulations show that if the prisoners had left before 23.00, they would have had absolutely no chance of surviving. The strong currents would have taken them out to sea. However, if they left between 23.00 and midnight, there is a good chance they reached Horseshoe Bay north of the Golden Gate Bridge.” The model predicted that if they landed at the bridge, their debris would have floated to Angel Island, which is where a paddle and some of their stuff was later found.
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