The headline on the Associated Press story may have overstated the case―“Young voters turned the tide for Brown's Prop 30”―but the news service’s exit poll certainly gave  proper respect to the youth vote for passage November 6 of the governor’s requested tax benefiting education.

Four days later the director of the Field Poll took the accolades down a notch during a post-election dissection at the Sacramento Press Club, according to the Sacramento Bee. “It helped the margin of victory, but it didn't change the outcome,” Mark DiCamillo said, arguing that ethnic-minority voters were more important than the youth vote and the election could prove to be “a turning point in California politics.”  

But DiCamillo acknowledged that his polling organization badly underestimated the youth turnout.

Using pre-election analysis weighted by the experience of the past four years, the Field Poll had predicted young people would cast 13% of the ballots. It turned out to be around 20%. More than 1 million new voters registered during the closing weeks, as the governor made a special outreach to college students.

The Associated Press exit polls, conducted with a consortium of television networks, echoed the turnout figure and said two-thirds of them voted for the measure. It noted that the turnout number was much higher than in pre-election polls that showed the initiative stumbling.

The University of California, California State University and the community college system―already cutting class offerings and school sessions because of budget cuts―would be large beneficiaries of the $6 billion raised annually through a bump in the sales tax and higher income taxes on the wealthy.   

The AP exit polls showed: Hispanics voted 53-47 in favor of Prop. 30, Asians 61-39, and blacks 75-25. White voters were split 50-50. The more money a voter had, the less they liked it. Voters with incomes over $100,000 were split 50-50, those between $50,000 and $100,000 went for it 53-47 and those under $50,000 voted 58-42 in favor.

–Ken Broder
 

To Learn More:

Pollster: Younger Voters Didn't Decide Outcome of Prop. 30 (by Jim Sanders, Sacramento Bee)

Young Voters Turned the Tide for Brown's Prop 30 (by Juliet Williams, Associated Press)